Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
